Australia’s response to the Universities Accord upskilling mission has started poorly, despite figures suggesting that the country easily met its last big attainment challenge.

The review set a target for 55 per cent of 25- to 34-year-old Australians to have degrees by 2050 – a lofty ambition requiring government-supported higher education enrolments to more than double.

While reliable data is hard to find, the indications are that student numbers are going down rather than up. Australian National University analyst Andrew Norton that the number of domestic 19-year-old higher education students last year slumped to its lowest level in at least nine years.

The participation rate among 19-year-olds also sank to a nine-year low of 40.9 per cent, barely above the target attainment rate for young adults recommended by higher education reviewer Denise Bradley 15 years earlier.

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Professor Norton stressed that his figures were estimates only because of “methodological issues” with the data. Shortcomings included international students’ inclusion in Australian population figures that were projected from five-yearly censuses. “Little should be read into small year-to-year changes,” he cautioned.

However, Department of Education statistics show that domestic enrolments fell in both 2022 and 2023, having last declined in 2004. The 2023 figure, the most recent available, was the lowest since 2016.

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While enrolments tend to be countercyclical, rising when jobs are scarce and vice versa, the apparent decline in demand for education precedes the labour market downturn and subsequent upturn during Covid-19.

The fall-off has hit schools as well as higher education. Last year, the “apparent retention rate” – the proportion of Australian students who started high school and reached Year 12 – , for the first time since 2010. School retention has been waning since 2017.

Amid figures such as these, the latest data release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ seemed cause for optimism. The proportion of degree-qualified 25- to 34-year-olds leapt by 2 percentage points to over 47 per cent.

The attainment rate among men, which has long lagged behind that of women, climbed above 40 per cent for the first time, suggesting that Professor Bradley’s 40 per cent target was now well and truly achieved.

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However, Professor Norton’s analysis suggests that these figures are inflated by long-term international students and, to a lesser extent, New Zealanders. Once these two groups are excluded, the 25- to 34-year-old attainment rate falls to just below 40 per cent overall and a little over 33 per cent for men, he .

University of Melbourne researcher Gwilym Croucher said gross enrolment ratios had plateaued in most countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Dr Croucher said there could be a “natural ceiling” on demand for degrees across the OECD in the foreseeable future, suggesting that the accord target could require “new students who have not previously considered higher education” – although he stressed that this was speculation.

Professor Norton said the tertiary education profile of Australian men improved when training qualifications were included. His analysis suggests that about 69 per cent of Australian-born 25- to 34-year-old males and 74 per cent of females have apprenticeship-level certificates, vocational diplomas or degrees.

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However, this remains well short of the accord’s tertiary attainment target of 80 per cent, while Jobs and Skills Australia – which is headed by accord panellist Barney Glover – says of future jobs will need post-secondary qualifications.

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com