Boris Johnson鈥檚 departure from 10 Downing Street offers fresh hope that the UK may join Horizon Europe, though British research may still suffer many more months of damaging uncertainty, senior scientists and policy experts have said.
As the prime minister prepares to leave office 鈥 albeit not until after a Conservative leadership contest 鈥 there was some optimism that his removal might unblock negotiations regarding the UK鈥檚聽ongoing exclusion聽from the European Union鈥檚 flagship 鈧90 billion (拢77 billion) research scheme.
Brussels has indicated that it will not admit the UK into Horizon Europe unless it drops forthcoming legislation to聽rewrite the rules on trade between Northern Ireland and the British mainland聽agreed in the Brexit deal. French president Emmanuel Macron is also known to distrust Mr Johnson personally, so the prime minister鈥檚 exit may remove another major barrier to UK association.
鈥淭he main issue has been with a lack of trust in the UK鈥檚 political leadership, so in this sense there is potential for a solution,鈥 said Carsten Welsch, head of the department of physics at the University of Liverpool, who was聽recently forced to give up leadership聽of a 鈧2.6 million EU-funded Marie Sk艂odowska-Curie Actions doctoral network that would have brought some of Europe鈥檚 leading PhD researchers to Liverpool.
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鈥淚f anyone came in now, as caretaker prime minister, and would clearly say 鈥榯he UK will respect its international treaties and not consider breaking the Northern Ireland protocol鈥, then this could change things quickly into Horizon association,鈥 said Professor Welsch.
John Womersley, former head of the European Spallation Source, a major EU-funded physics project based in Sweden, said Mr Johnson鈥檚 exit 鈥渙pens the possibility, in many scientists鈥 minds, that any new prime minister may take a more conciliatory line on the Northern Ireland protocol, which may unlock things with the European Commission鈥.
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But his resignation would be 鈥渂oth good and bad鈥, added Professor Womersley, now based at the University of Oxford. 鈥淭hat kind of a policy shift is far from guaranteed: imagine Liz Truss as prime minister,鈥 he said.
鈥淏ut precisely because the possibility of association may now look more achievable, it kind of guarantees several more months of not knowing or doing anything, which is itself bad for British science,鈥 Professor Womersley continued, adding that a 鈥渘ew chancellor may decide to take a tough line and claw back the funding that Rishi Sunak had set aside for participation in Horizon Europe鈥.
Those concerns over the state of limbo faced by UK science were echoed by Graeme Reid, chair of science and research policy at UCL, particularly given the growing聽uncertainty over support and timelines聽for the UK-based alternative to Horizon Europe, known as Plan B.
鈥淭oday, we are in a particularly unattractive place with no prospect of associating to Horizon Europe but no path to Plan B,鈥 said Professor Reid.
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鈥淟et鈥檚 hope that some fresh political faces can move the situation forward,鈥 he continued, adding that UK science was 鈥渉urtling towards a huge underspend on research and innovation鈥.
James Wilsdon, digital science professor of research policy at the University of Sheffield, said it seemed unlikely that details on Horizon Europe-Plan B transition arrangements, due to be published before the parliamentary summer recess on 21 July and then 鈥渨ith a fuller Plan B strategy to follow in the autumn, would now appear on schedule鈥.
鈥淚f Johnson goes today, and a transition leadership under Dominic Raab takes over, then we may still see these details emerge in the next two weeks 鈥 as well as other research policy announcements scheduled for July, including the new Nurse review, Grant review of UK Research and Innovation and Tickell review of research bureaucracy,鈥 he said.
鈥淏ut equally we may now see all of these announcements pushed back until the autumn, which will intensify the pressure and uncertainty already being felt by UK researchers working on EU-funded projects.鈥
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Mr Johnson鈥檚 exit 鈥 as well as the resignation of Michelle Donelan, who spent less than 36 hours as education secretary 鈥 may also push back the timetable for proposed legislation on protecting free speech on campus, which she has championed.
Prior to the latest upheaval in Downing Street, it was also expected that the government would confirm plans to聽cap student numbers in England聽by using outcomes measures currently under development, which include the proportion of graduates going into 鈥渕anagerial or professional employment鈥, 聽and to introduce a minimum entry requirement, expected to be set at two E聽grades at A聽level, within the next two weeks.
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The government鈥檚 collapse may now make the sector more hopeful of lobbying against these reforms, which have been聽strongly criticised聽by Universities UK.
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