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Johnson resignation brings uncertainty but some hope for sector

Departure of prime minister may allow for a rethink on Horizon Europe association, but sector could face months of damaging policy stasis, say experts

Published on
July 7, 2022
Last updated
July 7, 2022
10 Downing Street

Boris Johnson鈥檚 departure from 10 Downing Street offers fresh hope that the UK may join Horizon Europe, though British research may still suffer many more months of damaging uncertainty, senior scientists and policy experts have said.

As the prime minister prepares to leave office 鈥 albeit not until after a Conservative leadership contest 鈥 there was some optimism that his removal might unblock negotiations regarding the UK鈥檚聽ongoing exclusion聽from the European Union鈥檚 flagship 鈧90 billion (拢77 billion) research scheme.

Brussels has indicated that it will not admit the UK into Horizon Europe unless it drops forthcoming legislation to聽rewrite the rules on trade between Northern Ireland and the British mainland聽agreed in the Brexit deal. French president Emmanuel Macron is also known to distrust Mr Johnson personally, so the prime minister鈥檚 exit may remove another major barrier to UK association.

鈥淭he main issue has been with a lack of trust in the UK鈥檚 political leadership, so in this sense there is potential for a solution,鈥 said Carsten Welsch, head of the department of physics at the University of Liverpool, who was聽recently forced to give up leadership聽of a 鈧2.6 million EU-funded Marie Sk艂odowska-Curie Actions doctoral network that would have brought some of Europe鈥檚 leading PhD researchers to Liverpool.

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鈥淚f anyone came in now, as caretaker prime minister, and would clearly say 鈥榯he UK will respect its international treaties and not consider breaking the Northern Ireland protocol鈥, then this could change things quickly into Horizon association,鈥 said Professor Welsch.

John Womersley, former head of the European Spallation Source, a major EU-funded physics project based in Sweden, said Mr Johnson鈥檚 exit 鈥渙pens the possibility, in many scientists鈥 minds, that any new prime minister may take a more conciliatory line on the Northern Ireland protocol, which may unlock things with the European Commission鈥.

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But his resignation would be 鈥渂oth good and bad鈥, added Professor Womersley, now based at the University of Oxford. 鈥淭hat kind of a policy shift is far from guaranteed: imagine Liz Truss as prime minister,鈥 he said.

鈥淏ut precisely because the possibility of association may now look more achievable, it kind of guarantees several more months of not knowing or doing anything, which is itself bad for British science,鈥 Professor Womersley continued, adding that a 鈥渘ew chancellor may decide to take a tough line and claw back the funding that Rishi Sunak had set aside for participation in Horizon Europe鈥.

Those concerns over the state of limbo faced by UK science were echoed by Graeme Reid, chair of science and research policy at UCL, particularly given the growing聽uncertainty over support and timelines聽for the UK-based alternative to Horizon Europe, known as Plan B.

鈥淭oday, we are in a particularly unattractive place with no prospect of associating to Horizon Europe but no path to Plan B,鈥 said Professor Reid.

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鈥淟et鈥檚 hope that some fresh political faces can move the situation forward,鈥 he continued, adding that UK science was 鈥渉urtling towards a huge underspend on research and innovation鈥.

James Wilsdon, digital science professor of research policy at the University of Sheffield, said it seemed unlikely that details on Horizon Europe-Plan B transition arrangements, due to be published before the parliamentary summer recess on 21 July and then 鈥渨ith a fuller Plan B strategy to follow in the autumn, would now appear on schedule鈥.

鈥淚f Johnson goes today, and a transition leadership under Dominic Raab takes over, then we may still see these details emerge in the next two weeks 鈥 as well as other research policy announcements scheduled for July, including the new Nurse review, Grant review of UK Research and Innovation and Tickell review of research bureaucracy,鈥 he said.

鈥淏ut equally we may now see all of these announcements pushed back until the autumn, which will intensify the pressure and uncertainty already being felt by UK researchers working on EU-funded projects.鈥

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Mr Johnson鈥檚 exit 鈥 as well as the resignation of Michelle Donelan, who spent less than 36 hours as education secretary 鈥 may also push back the timetable for proposed legislation on protecting free speech on campus, which she has championed.

Prior to the latest upheaval in Downing Street, it was also expected that the government would confirm plans to聽cap student numbers in England聽by using outcomes measures currently under development, which include the proportion of graduates going into 鈥渕anagerial or professional employment鈥, 聽and to introduce a minimum entry requirement, expected to be set at two E聽grades at A聽level, within the next two weeks.

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The government鈥檚 collapse may now make the sector more hopeful of lobbying against these reforms, which have been聽strongly criticised聽by Universities UK.

jack.grove@timeshighereducation.com

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Reader's comments (1)

The article suggests that the downside of the brainless obduracy of the Brussels falls on the British. I discussed this in the Winter edition of the Salisbury Review A EUROPEAN HORIZON Given the proximity of Christmas and the rise of the omicron variant, few will have paid much attention to a December 22nd BBC News report concerning yet another 鈥渟pat鈥 with the EU. It may be over by the time you read this but the dispute itself tells us much about what to expect from the European Commission and the advisability, or otherwise, of Britain attempting any kind of collaboration. Horizon Europe is the Commission鈥檚 flagship funding programme for research and innovation, running from 2021 to 2027, with a budget of just under a hundred billion euros. British participation was confirmed in December 2020 and it had seemed one of the least controversial parts of the Brexit Trade and Cooperation Agreement. Chancellor Rishi Sunak has allocated nearly seven billion pounds to cover the British contribution until 2025. Yet British projects have gone unfunded and British scientists unpaid because the people of Ulster have an appetite for English sausages. Although little could be less relevant to science policy than the wretched Northern Ireland Protocol, 鈥渘othing is agreed until everything is agreed鈥 means that billion-euro initiatives can be held hostage over the tiniest chipolata. Last November, after nearly a year of obstruction on the part of the Commission, the European research and innovation community finally lost patience and issued a statement endorsed by more than a thousand universities, fifty-six academies of science and several thousand of the Continent鈥檚 most distinguished researchers, urging the EU to finalise British participation immediately. It stated that: 鈥淔urther delays or even non-association would result in a missed opportunity and a major weakening of our collective research strength and competitiveness,鈥 Professor Kurt Deketelaere, secretary-general of the League of European Research Universities wrote that: 鈥淎 further delay [in UK association] simply for political reasons is unacceptable.鈥 But Ursula von der Leyen and her cronies remain obdurate - had they been disposed to listen to experts they鈥檇 have done so before the vaccine debacle. Any failure to kowtow to every last one of their dictats must be punished, irrespective of the damage that might do to Europe鈥檚 own interests. At the very least, this suggests that committing to projects under the purview of such a body is to hoist one鈥檚 own Damacletian sword. As I write, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has just advised that the Northern Ireland dispute could be resolved in the near future. We鈥檝e heard it before. Whatever the outcome, I suggest that there are lessons here for our long-term relationship with what we may regard as a not altogether friendly power. A power, moreover, that has an erratic, incompetent, and unaccountable leadership. Indeed, Professor Deketelae goes on to suggest that the squabble is sending a discouraging message to other potential collaborators. Unfortunately, he's left it a tad late to warn that the Commission鈥檚 bizarre values and priorities are very much to the detriment of the European people. Recep Erdogan鈥檚 human rights record has proved no barrier to Turkey becoming an associate member of Horizon Europe, together with such science superpowers Kosovo and Ukraine, but Switzerland is barred. Back in 1992, Swiss voters declined to join what was then the European Economic Community. Talks aimed at achieving a greater level of harmonisation were abandoned last summer after seven years. More than 120 arrangements had been agreed but the insatiate cormorant of Brussels remained unsatisfied. So, despite their experience with advanced and large-scale science projects, from medicine to nuclear physics, Swiss scientists and engineers are also out in the cold. Will the people of Europe come to regret the intellectual capacity that their lords and masters are discarding so casually? Well, Switzerland has two universities in the world鈥檚 top fifty. That may not seem impressive when viewed from this side of the Channel - Britain has eight with four in London alone - but the whole of the EU can only muster half a dozen. Moreover, EHL Zurich is rated at 15 while Europe鈥檚 finest, LMU Munich, comes in at 32. This puts it behind Edinburgh, LSE, UCL, Imperial College, Cambridge, and, at number one, Oxford. Back in 1966, I joined the first group to read physics at the then brand-new University of Warwick and, I鈥檓 delighted to say, in half a century it has already reached number 78 in the rankings. This is well ahead of France鈥檚 celebrated Sorbonne, which clocks-in at 88. Italy鈥檚 top University, Bologna, was founded in 1088 and has taken nearly a millennium to reach 178 while Spain barely makes it into the top 200, with Barcelona at 193. Incidentally, those tempted to write-off the United States should note that, including three in Canada, North America accounts for more than half of the world鈥檚 top fifty seats of learning. Much innovation happens outside universities, of course, but Professor Deketelae and his colleagues certainly have good reason for concern. But what might Britain be missing? While the programme includes some well-found scientific institutions which I would be loath for us to abandon, for the most part these Euro-initiatives have been massively bureaucratic money-pits that have diverted funds from dozens, perhaps hundreds, of domestic projects. I say 鈥渋nitiatives'' because Horizon Europe is far from the first and it is possible by now to gauge their effectiveness. In their present form, they began in Lisbon, a few years before Prime Minister Gordon Brown skulked around the city hoping nobody back home would notice him signing-away our birthright with the eponymous treaty. The so-called 鈥淟isbon Strategy鈥 was originally set out by the European Council in March 2000. It was intended to make the EU "the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion" by 2010. None of these goals was achieved. It was superseded by Horizon 2020, a 10-year programme proposed by what had become the European Commission for 鈥渢he advancement of the economy of the European Union鈥. It aimed at "smart, sustainable, inclusive growth" with greater coordination of national and European policy. Since then, the number of EU companies in the world's top forty has gone from ten to two, with none in the first thirty. Now we have Horizon Europe to 鈥渂olster European champions", whatever they are. Once again, "The strategic planning process will focus in particular on the global challenges and European industrial competitiveness". There is no record that Einstein actually did say that insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly while expecting a different result, as is often attributed, but the Commission is clearly at a loss for ideas. In this instance, it doesn鈥檛 take a Nobel Laureate to recognise a fiscal black-hole. Sending billions to the Byzantine bureaucracy of Brussels, which can then be withheld on a whim, is clearly untenable and non-association would appear to be Britain鈥檚 best option. In the fullness of time, it may be possible to negotiate collaboration on a case by case basis. When it comes to advanced pure science, such as astronomical observatories, there are plenty of projects outside Europe that would welcome UK participation. And Horizon Europe鈥檚 half-baked industrial policy, having failed repeatedly in the past, holds few attractions in the present. It is a curious 鈥渃hampion鈥 that needs constant 鈥渂olstering鈥 from the taxpayer. In these days of low interest rates there is no shortage of cash for plausible investments while a new generation of venture capitalists is happy to pursue even the most far-fetched ideas, from quantum computing to landing on Mars. As a physicist, I still find it hard to imagine how fusion power could be a commercial proposition but several private projects are underway. British and European firms should be encouraged to compete for investment and market-share rather than for rent-seeking government handouts. History furnishes some lessons. In the 1980s, for example, many in America became alarmed at Japanese success with the MSX personal computer system. They were excellent machines - I owned one myself. Naturally there were calls for the US government to fund domestic competitors such as Apple, whose fortunes back then seemed to be on the wane. However, President Regan felt that there was little prospect of politicians and civil servants second-guessing the market so the late Steve Jobs was left to his own devices. Literally. I doubt that any committee of government bureaucrats would have come up with the iPhone. Iain Salisbury, retired physicist, Edgbaston

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