The Labour Party may swing to the left following resounding losses in local elections rather than introducing stricter immigration policies that could further hamper universities’ international student recruitment efforts, policy analysts have predicted. 

While counting was still under way, initial results from English council elections on 7 May showed significant gains for Reform UK at the expense of Labour, which was set to lose more than half its seats. 

The Green Party also looked set to gain more council seats following its success in the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year. 

In the devolved nations, the Scottish National Party has claimed victory in Scotland, while Labour has admitted defeat in Wales, with both Reform and Plaid Cymru vying to take the most seats in the parliament. 

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Responding to the results, prime minister Keir Starmer said the government will set out “further steps” it will take to win back the electorate before the next general election “in the coming days”. 

Although Labour may be under pressure from some quarters to be stricter on immigration following Reform’s success, including issues that affect universities like international student visas, analysts expect that the party may in fact move in the other direction. 

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“The dominant view is actually now more likely to be that Labour should worry more about the pressure from the left,” said Jonathan Simons, director of education at Public First. 

Labour has already attempted to position itself as strict on immigration – including by introducing stricter visa compliance measures for universities, shortening the post-study work visa�����Ի���implementing a visa brake for students from four countries – but the local election results show this has failed to sway Reform voters, Simons explained.

He said the party needed to recognise that, in certain parts of the country like Birmingham, London and Bristol, it is being “hammered from the left as well as from the right, and actually, going further to the right and chasing after Reform voters demonstrably hasn’t worked”.

Diana Beech, director of the Finsbury Institute at City St George’s, University of London, added that a “weakened leadership position” will also make it harder for Starmer to push through more restrictive immigration measures. 

“Unease within the parliamentary Labour Party is evident and doubling down on restrictive policies risks alienating Labour’s core supporter base without necessarily winning over voters drawn to Reform,” she said. “In that sense, trying to ‘out‑Reform’ Reform could prove politically counter‑productive.”

Although Starmer has pledged to remain in post, Labour’s significant losses also make a leadership challenge more likely. This too could see the party take a more left-wing position as candidates attempt to appeal to the party’s core membership base.  

“A future leader is likely to roll back on its stricter immigration approach to appease the party faithful,” said Beech, adding that this could create “even more space for Reform”. 

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Among those seen as likely to compete in a leadership election are Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham, health secretary Wes Streeting and former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner.

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While Burnham’s Manchester is home to several universities and thousands of students, Streeting is also thought to be sympathetic to students, having served as president of the National Union of Students from 2008 to 2010. 

Simons said Rayner, whose constituency houses Tameside, where Reform has now taken control of the council, is perhaps the most likely to tilt towards the right. 

But, he said, all candidates will be “cognisant of having to reach out to their left-leaning voters because their constituency for an internal Labour Party election is to the left of the general public and it’s certainly to the left of the voters they’ve been chasing to date”.

“I think we will actually get a slightly easier ride [on migration],” he said.

However, with Reform gaining more council seats and taking control of some councils, Beech warned that universities “cannot afford to be complacent”. 

“Strengthening relationships with councillors across all parties and making a clear, place‑based case for the purpose and value of higher education will be increasingly important as institutions prepare for a future in which Reform UK could have a stronger national presence,” she said. 

Simons added that although the changes to councils are unlikely to affect the day-to-day running of universities, institutional leaders in areas with Reform councils “need to engage with them”. 

With many councils not expected to be under the overall control of one party, Andy Westwood, professor of public policy, business and government at the University of Manchester, said that this could make “governing and any stakeholder relations much harder” – but added that this was unlikely to be a surprise to universities. 

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With counting at a much earlier stage in Scotland and Wales, universities in the devolved nations could see much more significant changes once the results are clear. Westwood added that in Wales in particular, where Labour has admitted defeat and no single party is expected to win a majority, things could end up much more “unstable”.

helen.packer@timeshighereducation.com