First-year university student numbers in Taiwan are projected to fall by a quarter by 2041��owing to the country’s falling birth rate, with experts warning the country will struggle to fill the gaps with international enrolments.

Newly released figures from Taiwan’s Ministry of Education project student numbers to fall by an average of 3,400 students every year for the next 16 years, dropping from 205,000 entrants this year to about 151,000 by 2041.

The government attributed this projected decline of 26.3 per cent of first-year student numbers to an ageing population and falling birth rate. Both demographic��trends are posing long-term challenges for the higher education sector��in Taiwan and across much of Asia.

Taiwan is currently experiencing its longest stretch of population decline, with its population falling for a 31st consecutive month in July. Births in the first seven months of the year also dropped by more than 10,000 compared with the same period last year.

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Taiwan attained the status of a��“super-aged society” last year, when people aged 65 and older��officially accounted for one-fifth of the overall population.

Demographic decline has already dealt a blow��to the country’s higher education sector, evidenced by entrant numbers falling from 270,000 in the 2015-16 academic year to 205,000��this year.��

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However, government data projecting more shrinkage is��sounding further alarm bells��among experts in the sector.

William Yat Wai Lo, an associate professor in intercultural and international education at the School of Education at Durham University, said that the��government in Taiwan is��“very aware” of the “structural”��problems posed by demographic trends, but explained there is no “easy way to deal with it”.

He pointed to the government’s��restructuring of��the sector��through mergers as proof that they are trying “to reduce pressure...and help institutions survive”.��

Compared��with public institutions, Lo said that it will be harder for private universities in Taiwan to stay open, as their operations heavily rely on donations and tuition fees.��

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The Ministry of Education in Taiwan has suggested that the sector continues to adjust university admission quotas in response to the declining birth rate, taking into account factors including educational quality, faculty structure and student-teacher ratios. The government has also encouraged institutions to voluntarily reduce student enrolment.

Lo said that another factor driving a decline in student numbers was that Taiwan struggled to internationalise its higher education sector, despite a heavy push to recruit students from China and South-east Asia in the 2010s.

According to Lo, the main reasons for its failure were��Taiwan’s fraught��relationship with��China��and��tougher competition from other Asian markets.��

“Why would international students choose Taiwan? How attractive are the universities in Taiwan to international students?” Lo asked.

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While Taiwan offers a good quality of education and a more affordable cost of living, he maintained that it is difficult for Taiwan to make a distinctive offering in an already swamped international market.

rosalind.skillen@timeshighereducation.com��